Double Digit Inflation
July 16th, 2008 by Ana
Randall from Credit Withdrawal just got done poking fun at me for not having something up on this morning’s inflation numbers, and I might as well admit to being sort of lazy lately where the blog is concerned.
For those who missed the news, the official CPI numbers for the month of June came in at a scorching 1.1% … WITH seasonal adjustment still in effect. I didn’t comment about last month’s 0.6% because that shocked me coming in that high. Some “fun” and simple math:
- 0.6% x 12 months = 7.2% annualized inflation based on the May numbers
- 1.1% x 12 months = 13.2% annualized on the numbers for June!!!
Break out the disco now, the BLS can no longer hide the doo-doo we are standing in, inflation-wise! Not even with seasonal adjustments, not with hedonics, not with substitution bias. I could have lots of fun raking Ben Bernake and 8 others from the FOMC over the coals here, but that’s pretty much like shooting fish in a barrel. Oh yeah, the “good” news: those rate cuts that went on from fall until April still haven’t worked into the economy completely … which means inflation will keep going up for a while.
Thankfully for me, the state board limited my college to “only” (?) a 6% tuition increase, but I am pretty sure they will hike the unregulated fees to cover that and the budget cuts the state is handing them. Eh, I’ll tackle tuition next post. It’s going to be on my mind constantly for the next month until I get both mine and the Teenager’s tuitions paid up.
Posted in stagflation survival |
July 17th, 2008 at 4:23 am
Glad you’re back!
July 17th, 2008 at 4:31 am
I don’t think you can extrapolate a Year over Year figure out monthly like that to get an annualized inflation rate.
July 17th, 2008 at 5:18 am
Thanks for the math; it justifies what people are going through but at the same time Yikes!
July 17th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Traciatim, probably not, but I don’t think the 5% Y-o-Y they released yesterday is correct either.
July 21st, 2008 at 12:28 pm
I’m looking forward to your tuition post. My school is already over 50k and rising. We’ll see what happens. Most likely me getting more in debt.
July 22nd, 2008 at 5:49 am
I’m glad I got out of running my own business a few months ago. I’m sure I would really be feeling the squeeze.
July 22nd, 2008 at 11:59 am
Nice post. Potential YoY double digit inflation, plus continued housing slump, plus higher credit access barriers = a tough year for the US economy in 2008. Happy New Years!
July 24th, 2008 at 4:54 am
thank for the post and keep it up the good work
July 28th, 2008 at 9:25 am
The prices of almost everything are going up.
Packaged food manufacturers are “hiding” the price increases by reducing the package sizes… but not the prices.
Same price, but you get less.
I like that you compared the criticism of Ben Bernanke & Company to “shooting fish in a barrel.” I completely agree.
Then again, at least some of the responsibility for the current state of affairs should be placed on “Easy Al” Greenspan’s shoulders.
July 29th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
[…] #6. Inflation won’t have that big of an effect. Inflation is only, what? Three or four percent? Yeah, like THAT’S going to make a difference in the […]
August 22nd, 2008 at 8:36 am
I really enjoy reading your blog. Keep up the good work.